Changing demographics, State Sen. Davis give hope to state Democrats

In early 2013, Jackson Williams, one of the architects the Democratic national campaign win in 2012, made the media rounds.

His message was one that would stir discussion across the U.S. political spectrum.

Williams was now intent on using the voter turnout machine that he had helped construct nationally, to help Democrats compete more closely in the state of Texas; it would be an effort to turn Texas purple.

For a moment, it seemed the country’s entire political class stopped to ponder the idea.

Certainly, it came as a grim notion to Texas Senator Ted Cruz (R), who told the following to the New Yorker.

“If Texas turns bright blue, the Electoral College math is simple. We won’t be talking about Ohio, we won’t be talking about Florida or Virginia, because…. you can’t get to two-seventy electoral votes. The Republican Party would cease to exist.”

The nation breathed again, and soon Republicans everywhere were dismissing the idea as folly.

After all, Texas was home to the last Republican President of the United States.

True, the state’s demographics are rapidly changing, but Texas has also passed some of the strictest voter registration laws in the country.

Surely such talk was overrated.

However the skyrocketing career of Wendy Davis has once again brought to life the idea of a changing political landscape in Texas.

Her story, like so many in today’s politics, pits the hope of what might be possible against the sober realities on the ground.

Davis’ efforts to filibuster a conservative abortion bill in the state legislature won her national prominence; however, the bill was eventually passed, leaving Texas Democrats with a reminder of exactly how far they still have to go.

Fellow Democratic women, such as House Minority Leader Nanci Pelosi are supportive, but admit Davis has a difficult decision to make should she decide to make a run for the Governor’s mansion.

“I think she knows how much we all respect her, but it’s not really about what anybody outside the state thinks,” Pelosi said, according to The Statesman.

“It’s about what she thinks is possible.”

Ms. Davis has a lot to think about when it comes to what may be possible.

Certainly, her newfound national stardom would assist in raising the huge amounts of campaign money necessary to get her message across to the state’s 8 million voters.

The question remains, however, is national celebrity and a compelling personal narrative enough to defeat the tried and tested political machine that has seen Republican candidates capture every major elected office in Texas in recent years?

As of 2011, more than 38% of the Texas population is Hispanic, and while Hispanic-Americans do tend to lean strongly democratic, their numbers may not yet be large enough to make a crucial difference in a state election.

Indeed, it is no guarantee that Hispanic voting trends in Texas will parallel those found nationally, as Governor Rick Perry (R) proved when he won 39% of Hispanic voters in his 2010 Gubernatorial race.

The potential of Wendy Davis has galvanized support among Texas Democrats and caught the attention of the nation, but a successful run for Governor may still be a very long shot.

The coming months will be full of intrigue, however, there should be no illusions; those who see shades of purple in Texas at the moment, may be wearing role-colored glasses.  l

Jeff Hull is a freelance political contributor.

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